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Earth & Climate

Predicting Damage from Local Earthquakes in Mexico City

Seismologists describe potential damage forecasts from ground shaking scenarios for moderate earthquakes in three regions of the Mexico City basin.

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The city of Mexico is no stranger to seismic events, but a recent swarm of small shallow earthquakes has raised questions about how shaking from moderate-sized earthquakes might impact buildings across the city. Researchers Miguel Jaimes and Gerardo Suárez have investigated potential damage forecasts from ground shaking scenarios for moderate earthquakes in three regions of the Mexico City basin.

Their study modeled earthquakes up to magnitude 5.5, which produced varying levels of damaged buildings depending on the region’s underlying geology. For instance, a moderate earthquake in the Juan de Aragón lake zone would likely cause significant damage to one- to two-story buildings due to the area’s soft and supersaturated lakebed sediments.

In contrast, an earthquake in the La Magdalena transition zone between the lake zone and the city’s hill area would result in less damage, while a quake in the Milpa Alta highlands to the southeast of the city would have the least impact. “The geographic effect was very dependent on the type of geotechnical region the earthquake occurred,” said Suárez.

Mexico City has experienced both shallow crustal earthquakes and deeper subduction earthquakes, with peak ground accelerations from recent small earthquakes being larger than those recorded during major earthquakes in 1985 and 2017. The researchers estimated that one- to two-story buildings would receive the most damage from local earthquake shaking due to their frequency of vibration coinciding with the high frequency content of seismic waves.

The study’s findings suggest that urban planners, earthquake engineers, and others must consider the seismic risk stemming not only from large subduction earthquakes but also from local crustal sources that can cause substantial damage. As Suárez noted, “the recent microearthquakes recorded in Mexico City have awakened interest in what effect an earthquake of moderate magnitude would have.” This study aims to provide insights into this very issue.

Atmosphere

Unpacking America’s Winter Puzzle: How the Stratosphere Shapes Extreme Cold Snaps

Even in a warming climate, brutal cold snaps still hammer parts of the U.S., and a new study uncovers why. High above the Arctic, two distinct polar vortex patterns — both distorted and displaced — play a major role in steering icy air toward different regions. One sends it plunging into the Northwest, while the other aims it at the Central and Eastern U.S. Since 2015, the westward version has been more common, bringing intensified cold to the Northwest in defiance of global warming trends. This stratospheric detective work offers fresh insight into extreme winter weather — and could supercharge long-range forecasts.

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The United States is no stranger to bone-chilling winter cold, despite a warming climate. A recent study has shed light on why this phenomenon persists, pointing to two specific patterns in the polar vortex – a swirling mass of cold air high in the stratosphere. These variations can steer extreme cold to different regions of the country, often contradicting broader warming trends.

Researchers from an international team, including Prof. Chaim Garfinkel (Hebrew University), Dr. Laurie Agel and Prof. Mathew Barlow (University of Massachusetts), Prof. Judah Cohen (MIT and Atmospheric and Environmental Research AER), Karl Pfeiffer (Atmospheric and Environmental Research Hampton), and Prof. Jennifer Francis (Woodwell Climate Research Center), have published their findings in Science Advances.

The study reveals that since 2015, the Northwest US has experienced more of these cold outbreaks due to a shift in stratospheric behavior tied to broader climate cycles. In contrast, other regions may experience milder winters. Understanding this relationship can improve long-range forecasting, allowing cities, power grids, and agriculture to better prepare for winter extremes – even as the climate warms overall.

“It’s not just about warming everywhere all the time,” explained the researchers. “Climate change also means more complex and sometimes counterintuitive shifts in where extreme weather shows up.”

The work was funded by a US NSF-BSF grant by Chaim Garfinkel of HUJI and Judah Cohen of AER&MIT, highlighting the importance of international collaboration in addressing global climate challenges.

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Earth & Climate

“Unveiling the Invisible: Scientists Capture High-Resolution Images of Wind-Wave Interactions on the Open Ocean”

A laser-equipped research platform has, for the first time, photographed airflow just millimeters above ocean waves, revealing two simultaneous wind–wave energy-transfer tricks—slow short waves steal power from the breeze, while long giants sculpt the air in reverse. These crisp observations promise to overhaul climate and weather models by clarifying how heat, momentum, and greenhouse gases slip between sea and sky.

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Scientists from the Hereon Institute of Coastal Ocean Dynamics have made a groundbreaking discovery by capturing high-resolution images of the ocean surface using a specially developed laser measurement system. Led by Dr. Marc Buckley, the team has successfully mapped the interactions between wind and waves on the open ocean, shedding new light on the complex mechanisms that control energy exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean.

Using Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV), an established technique in fluid dynamics, the researchers were able to visualize both the air and water sides of the ocean surface. The laser beam passed through both media, illuminating tiny droplets suspended in the air above the water. This allowed the team to capture precise information about flow structure and wind speeds.

The breakthrough findings reveal two distinct wind-wave coupling mechanisms that occur simultaneously but operate differently. Short waves, approximately one meter in length, move slower than the wind, creating a pressure difference that transfers energy to the wave. Long waves, up to 100 meters in length, move faster than the wind and generate different airflow patterns through their motion.

These discoveries have significant implications for advancing atmospheric and oceanic models. The interactions between wind and waves are a central component of the Earth’s climate and weather systems, controlling the exchange of energy, heat, and greenhouse gases between the atmosphere and the ocean.

The research team plans to further develop the system to capture movements below the water surface with greater precision. This cutting-edge research aims to preserve a world worth living in by generating knowledge and researching new technologies for greater resilience and sustainability – for the benefit of the climate, the coast, and people.

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Diabetes

The Hidden Cost of Climate Change: A Threat to Food Quality and Human Health

Climate change is silently sapping the nutrients from our food. A pioneering study finds that rising CO2 and higher temperatures are not only reshaping how crops grow but are also degrading their nutritional value especially in vital leafy greens like kale and spinach. This shift could spell trouble for global health, particularly in communities already facing nutritional stress. Researchers warn that while crops may grow faster, they may also become less nourishing, with fewer minerals, proteins, and antioxidants raising concerns about obesity, weakened immunity, and chronic diseases.

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The article highlights the crucial aspect of climate change that has often been overlooked – its impact on the nutritional quality of food crops. Rising CO2 levels and hotter temperatures can lead to a reduction in key minerals like calcium and certain antioxidant compounds, making the crops less healthy. This is not just a problem for farmers but also for consumers, as it can lead to diets that are higher in calories but poorer in nutritional value.

The research, led by Jiata Ugwah Ekele, a PhD student at Liverpool John Moores University, UK, used environment-controlled growth chambers to simulate the UK’s predicted future climate scenarios. The crops were grown under different conditions, and their nutritional quality was analyzed using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and X-Ray Fluorescence profiling.

The preliminary results suggest that elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 can help crops grow faster and bigger but certainly not healthier. The interaction between CO2 and heat stress had complex effects – the crops did not grow as big or fast, and the decline in nutritional quality intensified.

This research has serious implications for human health and wellbeing. The altered balance of nutrients in crops could contribute to diets that are higher in calories but poorer in nutritional value, leading to greater risks of obesity and type 2 diabetes, particularly in populations already struggling with non-communicable diseases.

Crops with poor nutritional content can also lead to deficiencies in vital proteins and vitamins that compromise the human immune system and exacerbate existing health conditions – particularly in low or middle-income countries.

The research highlights the importance of studying multiple stressors together and emphasizes that we cannot generalize across crops. Different species react differently to climate change stressors, making it essential to study each crop individually.

This research is not just about food production but also about human development and climate adaptation. It’s essential to think holistically about the kind of food system we’re building – one that not only produces enough food but also promotes health, equity, and resilience.

The findings of this research are being presented at the Society for Experimental Biology Annual Conference in Antwerp, Belgium on July 8th, 2025. The researchers are open to collaborating further on this project with the wider research community, including those from agriculture, nutrition, and climate policy.

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