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Unpacking America’s Winter Puzzle: How the Stratosphere Shapes Extreme Cold Snaps

Even in a warming climate, brutal cold snaps still hammer parts of the U.S., and a new study uncovers why. High above the Arctic, two distinct polar vortex patterns — both distorted and displaced — play a major role in steering icy air toward different regions. One sends it plunging into the Northwest, while the other aims it at the Central and Eastern U.S. Since 2015, the westward version has been more common, bringing intensified cold to the Northwest in defiance of global warming trends. This stratospheric detective work offers fresh insight into extreme winter weather — and could supercharge long-range forecasts.
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The United States is no stranger to bone-chilling winter cold, despite a warming climate. A recent study has shed light on why this phenomenon persists, pointing to two specific patterns in the polar vortex – a swirling mass of cold air high in the stratosphere. These variations can steer extreme cold to different regions of the country, often contradicting broader warming trends.

Researchers from an international team, including Prof. Chaim Garfinkel (Hebrew University), Dr. Laurie Agel and Prof. Mathew Barlow (University of Massachusetts), Prof. Judah Cohen (MIT and Atmospheric and Environmental Research AER), Karl Pfeiffer (Atmospheric and Environmental Research Hampton), and Prof. Jennifer Francis (Woodwell Climate Research Center), have published their findings in Science Advances.

The study reveals that since 2015, the Northwest US has experienced more of these cold outbreaks due to a shift in stratospheric behavior tied to broader climate cycles. In contrast, other regions may experience milder winters. Understanding this relationship can improve long-range forecasting, allowing cities, power grids, and agriculture to better prepare for winter extremes – even as the climate warms overall.

“It’s not just about warming everywhere all the time,” explained the researchers. “Climate change also means more complex and sometimes counterintuitive shifts in where extreme weather shows up.”

The work was funded by a US NSF-BSF grant by Chaim Garfinkel of HUJI and Judah Cohen of AER&MIT, highlighting the importance of international collaboration in addressing global climate challenges.

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