As Europe’s reliance on solar energy grows to meet climate and energy security targets, a new challenge has emerged: Saharan dust. This atmospheric phenomenon is reducing photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation across the continent and making it harder to predict.

Researchers at the European Geosciences Union General Assembly (EGU25) presented findings that reveal how mineral dust carried on the wind from North Africa is disrupting PV performance and challenging existing forecasting models. The study, “The Shadow of the Wind: Photovoltaic Power Generation under Europe’s Dusty Skies,” used field data from over 46 Saharan dust events between 2019 and 2023 to explore the impact of dust-laden skies on solar power generation.

The Sahara Desert releases billions of tonnes of fine dust into the atmosphere every year, with tens of millions of tonnes reaching European skies. This dust scatters and absorbs sunlight, reducing irradiance at the surface and promoting cloud formation – all of which degrade PV output. Conventional forecasting tools often miss the mark during these events, leading to underperformance and grid instability.

Dr. György Varga and his team recommend integrating near-real-time dust load data and aerosol-cloud coupling into forecasting models. This would enable more reliable scheduling of solar energy and better preparedness for the variability introduced by atmospheric dust. “There’s a growing need for dynamic forecasting methods that account for both meteorological and mineralogical factors,” Varga says.

Beyond atmospheric effects, Saharan dust also has long-term impacts on the physical infrastructure of solar panels, including contamination and erosion – factors that can further reduce efficiency and increase maintenance costs. This research contributes to ongoing efforts in Hungary and the EU to improve climate resilience and renewable energy management, highlighting the importance of considering both short-term and long-term effects of Saharan dust on Europe’s solar future.

The world’s oceans are experiencing an unusual and rapid warming trend, but not uniformly so. According to a recent study led by climate scientist Dr Kevin Trenberth, two distinct bands of ocean heat upsurge around the globe, one in the southern hemisphere and another in the north. These bands are surprisingly close together, at approximately 40 degrees latitude.

The first band, stretching from 40 to 45 degrees south, is heating at an alarming rate, with particularly pronounced effects observed near New Zealand, Tasmania, and the Atlantic waters east of Argentina. In contrast, the second band is situated around 40 degrees north, with significant warming evident in waters east of the United States in the North Atlantic and east of Japan in the North Pacific.

“This pattern stands out starkly,” Dr Trenberth remarks, emphasizing that such a distinctive heating trend is unusual when analyzing climate data. The implications of these findings are substantial, as oceanic heat contributes to an array of issues, including disrupted marine ecosystems, increased atmospheric water vapor (a potent greenhouse gas), and the intensification of severe weather patterns.

Researchers employed an unprecedented volume of atmospheric and oceanic data to assess 1-degree latitude strips of ocean down to a depth of 2000 meters from 2000 to 2023. Their analysis revealed not only the two primary heat bands but also notable warming in regions from 10 degrees north to 20 degrees south, encompassing much of the tropics.

The absence of significant heating near 20 degrees latitude, however, is a striking anomaly, especially considering it spans both hemispheres. As Dr Trenberth notes, “What’s unusual here is that we’re not seeing warming in this area.”

This research, co-authored by Lijing Cheng and Yuying Pan from the Chinese Academy of Sciences, John Fasullo from NCAR, and Michael Mayer from the University of Vienna and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, highlights a critical need to reassess our understanding of climate patterns in light of this new information.

The article discusses a recent study led by University College London researchers that suggests using existing large planes, like the Boeing 777F, to inject particles into the atmosphere to reflect sunlight and cool the planet. This approach, known as stratospheric aerosol injection, is a geoengineering technique that has been previously researched but assumed to require specially designed aircraft flying at high altitudes.

The study found that injecting sulphur dioxide particles at an altitude of 13 km above the polar regions could meaningfully cool the planet, albeit less effectively than at higher altitudes closer to the equator. This approach would require using three times the amount of aerosol and would have increased side effects like acid rain.

However, climate change is a serious problem, and it’s essential to understand all options for policy-makers to make informed decisions. The researchers used simulations in the UK’s Earth System Model 1 (UKESM1) to estimate the impact of stratospheric aerosol injection at different altitudes, latitudes, and seasons.

Injecting 12 million tonnes of sulphur dioxide a year at 13 km would cool the planet by around 0.6°C, which is roughly the same amount added to the atmosphere by the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991. This strategy is not as effective as injecting particles at higher altitudes but could begin sooner.

The study’s lead author noted that any stratospheric aerosol injection would need to be introduced gradually and reduced gradually to avoid catastrophic impacts from sudden warming or cooling, and would not eliminate the need for emissions reductions. The researchers emphasized that long-term climate stability can only be achieved with net-zero greenhouse gas emission reductions.