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Asteroids, Comets and Meteors

Asteroid Impact Threat Estimates Improved for Earth and the Moon

An international team is currently closely tracking the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4. The impact probability estimates for the year 2032 has been reduced from a peak of 3 percent to below 0.001 percent.

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The threat posed by near-Earth asteroids has long been a concern for scientists and policymakers. Recently, an international team of researchers has been closely tracking the asteroid 2024 YR4, which initially sparked a first-ever notification from the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) on January 29th, 2025. The early calculations predicted an impact probability of 1.3% with Earth on December 22nd, 2032, and estimated its size between 40 and 90 meters.

However, the team’s observations using the Nordic Optical Telescope in La Palma, Canary Islands, revealed a significant drop in the impact probability to below 0.001%. This reduction was achieved through precise measurements of the asteroid’s position and motion, as well as analysis of its rotation, size, and shape. The team’s findings were published in a recent article.

While the threat to Earth has decreased significantly, the researchers have identified a new risk: there is currently a 4% chance of the asteroid impacting the Moon instead. This possibility could lead to particles being detached from the Moon and the asteroid, potentially threatening human space infrastructure and operations.

The James Webb Space Telescope played a crucial role in refining the size estimate of the asteroid, providing direct indicators of its diameter through thermal emission measurements at infrared wavelengths. The team’s analysis resulted in an estimate that there is a 95% chance the diameter is between 46 and 74 meters.

Despite the reduced risk, Earth-based and space-based observatories will continue tracking YR4 until it becomes unobservable from Earth in April or May 2025. The success of this project highlights the importance of persistent work and collaboration among researchers, policymakers, and engineers to mitigate the risks posed by near-Earth objects.

The University of Helsinki has been at the forefront of asteroid research, combining astronomical observations with laboratory measurements, theoretical, and numerical research. This expertise is critical for assessing potential impact risks caused by near-Earth objects and will be a valuable asset in the newly established Space Situational Awareness Center.

Asteroids, Comets and Meteors

The Elusive Planet Next Door Continues to Baffle Astronomers

NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope has detected strong evidence for a giant planet orbiting Alpha Centauri A, the nearest Sun-like star to Earth. Located just 4 light-years away, this possible Saturn-mass world may travel between one and two times the distance from its star that Earth does from the Sun. The planet appears to lie in the habitable zone, though its gas giant nature makes it unlikely to host life.

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The search for exoplanets has been a thrilling adventure in recent years, with scientists using various methods to detect worlds beyond our solar system. One such method involves observing the light emitted by stars, which can be affected by the presence of planets. In the case of the Alpha Centauri star system, located just 4 light-years away from Earth, astronomers have been trying to confirm the existence of a giant planet orbiting one of its three stars.

Using the Mid-Infrared Instrument (MIRI) on NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope, researchers have found strong evidence of a possible gas giant planet orbiting Alpha Centauri A. The observations were made in August 2024 and February 2025, using the coronagraphic mask aboard MIRI to block the light from Alpha Centauri A. While the initial detection was exciting, additional observations in April 2025 did not reveal any objects like the one identified in August 2024.

To investigate this mystery, researchers used computer models to simulate millions of potential orbits, incorporating the knowledge gained when they saw the planet and when they did not. These simulations suggested that the planet could be a gas giant approximately the mass of Saturn, orbiting Alpha Centauri A in an elliptical path varying between one to two times the distance between the Sun and Earth.

While the existence of this planet is still uncertain, it would mark a new milestone for exoplanet imaging efforts if confirmed. The potential planet seen in the Webb image of Alpha Centauri A would be the closest to its star seen so far, and its very existence in a system of two closely separated stars would challenge our understanding of how planets form, survive, and evolve in chaotic environments.

The James Webb Space Telescope is the world’s premier space science observatory, and its MIRI instrument was developed through a 50-50 partnership between NASA and ESA. The telescope is solving mysteries in our solar system, looking beyond to distant worlds around other stars, and probing the mysterious structures and origins of our universe and our place in it.

If confirmed by additional observations, the team’s results could transform the future of exoplanet science. This would become a touchstone object for exoplanet science, with multiple opportunities for detailed characterization by Webb and other observatories. NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope, set to launch by May 2027, is equipped with dedicated hardware that will test new technologies to observe binary systems like Alpha Centauri in search of other worlds.

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Asteroids, Comets and Meteors

“Explosive Consequences: Baby Star’s Jet Causes Shockwave That Threatens Its Own Existence”

Astronomers have stumbled upon an incredible cosmic chain reaction: a young star launched a high-speed jet that ignited an explosion, creating a massive bubble in space that is now slamming back into the very star system that birthed it. This startling feedback loop, caught for the first time using ALMA data, may reshape what we know about how stars and planets form, and the volatile environments they endure. Nature, it seems, still holds dramatic surprises.

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Astronomers have made a groundbreaking discovery in space, revealing that a young star’s own explosion can push back against it and influence its formation. This finding has significant implications for our understanding of how stars and their planets come into being.

Stars are formed from the collapse of molecular clouds in space. As these clouds collapse, they retain their angular momentum, causing them to spin and evolve into protoplanetary disks. Within these disks, stars and planets form, but not all material is incorporated into new stars and planets. Some excess matter is ejected through powerful jets aligned with the rotation axis of the disk.

A team of Japanese astronomers was re-examining archival data from the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) when they stumbled upon an explosively expanding bubble structure near a protoplanetary disk called WSB 52. Located 441.3 light-years away in the direction of the constellation Ophiuchus, further analysis revealed that a shock front created by the expanding bubble was colliding with and distorting the disk.

This phenomenon, known as a “shock-induced disk distortion,” has not been predicted theoretically and is unprecedented among young stars. The research team found that the center of the bubble aligned with the disk’s rotation axis, indicating that a jet emitted from WSB 52 hundreds of years ago collided with cold gas near the disk, causing it to compress and explode.

According to lead researcher Masataka Aizawa at Ibaraki University, “This discovery shows us that nature is far more complex than humans think. The effects of these explosions on star formation and planetary system creation are still unknown and require further research.”

The implications of this finding are profound, suggesting that young stars and their planets may be exposed to a harsher environment than previously thought. As scientists continue to explore the mysteries of the universe, this discovery serves as a reminder that there is still much to learn about the intricate processes governing the birth and evolution of celestial bodies.

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Asteroids, Comets and Meteors

Scientists Uncover Mysterious Molecule with Potential to Spark Life in Space

Scientists have successfully synthesized methanetetrol, an incredibly unstable and previously elusive compound thought to be a key ingredient in the chemical evolution of life. Described as a “prebiotic concentrate” or even a “prebiotic bomb,” this molecule could represent a crucial step in the cosmic recipe for life.

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The discovery of the elusive compound, methanetetrol, has sent shockwaves through the scientific community. An international team of researchers, led by Ryan Fortenberry, Ralf Kaiser, and Alexander M. Mebel, have successfully synthesized this prebiotic concentrate for the first time.

“This is essentially a seed of life molecule,” Fortenberry explained in an interview. “It’s something that can lead to more complex chemistry if given the opportunity.” The team used a unique process involving frozen water and carbon dioxide ices exposed to cosmic ray-like radiation to release methanetetrol into gas form.

Methanetetrol is an ortho acid, an elusive class of compounds thought to play a key role in early life chemistry. However, its instability means it’s likely to break down quickly, releasing water, hydrogen peroxide, and other potential compounds essential for life.

“It’s like a prebiotic bomb,” Fortenberry said, highlighting the molecule’s explosive potential when exposed to energy. If methanetetrol can form in the lab, it can also form naturally in space, making it a crucial discovery for astrochemists searching for regions with life-supporting chemistry.

While carbon is the foundation of life, oxygen is what makes up nearly everything else. “Oxygen is everywhere and is essential for life as we know it,” Fortenberry emphasized. By finding places where methanetetrol forms naturally, scientists can identify potential building blocks to support life beyond Earth.

This groundbreaking research has been made possible by funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF), highlighting the importance of continued investment in scientific inquiry and discovery.

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