Monitoring Global Warming: A More Accurate Track to Paris Climate Goals

Climate researcher Gottfried Kirchengast and his team at the University of Graz have developed a new method that enables reliable monitoring of global warming. This breakthrough allows for more accurate predictions about the pace of global warming, which is essential for tracking progress towards the Paris climate goals.

The Paris Agreement of 2015 aimed to limit global warming to well below 2°C and preferably to 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels. The latest IPCC report expected the 1.5°C threshold to be reached between 2030 and 2035. However, Kirchengast’s research suggests that this estimate may be too optimistic, with temperatures likely exceeding the 1.5°C mark as early as 2028.

The researchers have created a benchmark record for global surface air temperature from 1850 to 2024, which provides an unprecedented level of accuracy. This new data show a six percent higher increase in global surface air temperature compared to conventional monitoring methods. The team’s findings also enable the distinction between human-induced temperature increases and natural climate phenomena like El Niño.

Kirchengast proposes a four-classes assessment scale to evaluate compliance with the Paris climate goals. This scale would provide clarity on whether countries are meeting or missing their targets, allowing policymakers to make informed decisions.

The researcher emphasizes the importance of standardizing this assessment method through organizations like the World Meteorological Organization and the IPCC. He also suggests defining the phrase ‘well below 2°C’ as ‘below 1.7°C,’ providing a clear and measurable target for countries to work towards.

By using Kirchengast’s research, we can create a more accurate track for monitoring global warming and hold ourselves accountable for achieving the Paris climate goals. This will help us make informed decisions about our actions to mitigate climate change and achieve the desired outcomes for our planet.

The world’s food supply is facing unprecedented challenges due to Earth’s rapidly changing climate. University of Hawai’i scientists are among a team of researchers who have discovered an innovative way to help adapt food crops around the world to these new conditions. A recent study published in Nature Climate Change reveals how plant genebanks, also known as “living libraries,” can speed up the process of breeding crops better suited for climate change.

These living libraries store seeds and other genetic material from millions of genetically diverse plants worldwide. They provide a vital resource for plant breeders working to develop new crop varieties that have traits such as drought resistance, disease tolerance, or improved yields. The researchers used sorghum, a grain grown for food, fuel, and livestock feed, to test a new method called environmental genomic selection.

This approach combines DNA data with climate information to predict which plants are best suited for future conditions. It can be applied to any crop that has the right data, including sorghum, barley, cannabis, pepper, and dozens of other crops. By using a smaller, diverse “mini-core” group to forecast how crops will perform in different environments, scientists can quickly select the best parents for new, climate-resilient varieties.

“This method will help us keep pace with the hotter temperatures and increased risk of flooding from Earth’s changing climate and help develop new varieties to ensure food security,” said co-author Michael Kantar of the UH Manoa College of Tropical Agriculture and Human Resilience (CTAHR).

The researchers also discovered that nations with high sorghum use may need genetic resources from other countries to effectively adapt to climate change. This highlights the value of global teamwork in securing the world’s food supply.

In conclusion, living libraries can play a crucial role in helping us adapt food crops to climate change. By leveraging these genetic resources and innovative breeding techniques, we can develop more resilient crop varieties that will ensure global food security for generations to come.

The article highlights a critical aspect of environmental degradation: the rising soil nitrous acid (HONO) emissions driven by climate change and fertilization, which accelerate global ozone pollution. A team of researchers from The Hong Kong Polytechnic University has examined global soil HONO emissions data from 1980 to 2016 and incorporated them into a chemistry-climate model. Their findings reveal that soil HONO emissions contribute significantly to the increase in the ozone mixing ratio in air, which has negative impacts on vegetation.

The researchers found that soil HONO emissions have increased from 9.4 Tg N in 1980 to 11.5 Tg N in 2016, with a 2.5% average annual rise in the global surface ozone mixing ratio. This increase may lead to overexposure of vegetation to ozone, affecting ecosystem balance and food crop production. Moreover, ozone damage reduces vegetation’s capacity to absorb carbon dioxide, further aggravating greenhouse gas emissions.

The study emphasizes that soil HONO emissions are influenced by nitrogen fertiliser usage and climate factors like soil temperature and water content. Emissions hotspots cluster in agricultural areas worldwide, with Asia being the largest emitter (37.2% of total).

Interestingly, regions with lower pollution levels are more affected by ozone formation due to higher volatile organic compound concentrations and lower nitrogen oxide levels. This implies that as global anthropogenic emissions decrease, the impact of soil HONO emissions on ozone levels may increase.

To mitigate this issue, Prof. Tao Wang recommends considering soil HONO emissions in strategies for reducing global air pollution. The research team developed a robust parameterisation scheme by integrating advanced modelling techniques and diverse datasets, which can facilitate more accurate assessments of ozone production caused by soil HONO emissions and their impact on vegetation.

Future studies should explore mitigation strategies to optimise fertiliser use while maintaining agricultural productivity, such as deep fertiliser placement and the use of nitrification inhibitors.