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Asteroids, Comets and Meteors

Asteroid Impact Threat Estimates Improved for Earth and the Moon

An international team is currently closely tracking the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4. The impact probability estimates for the year 2032 has been reduced from a peak of 3 percent to below 0.001 percent.

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The threat posed by near-Earth asteroids has long been a concern for scientists and policymakers. Recently, an international team of researchers has been closely tracking the asteroid 2024 YR4, which initially sparked a first-ever notification from the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) on January 29th, 2025. The early calculations predicted an impact probability of 1.3% with Earth on December 22nd, 2032, and estimated its size between 40 and 90 meters.

However, the team’s observations using the Nordic Optical Telescope in La Palma, Canary Islands, revealed a significant drop in the impact probability to below 0.001%. This reduction was achieved through precise measurements of the asteroid’s position and motion, as well as analysis of its rotation, size, and shape. The team’s findings were published in a recent article.

While the threat to Earth has decreased significantly, the researchers have identified a new risk: there is currently a 4% chance of the asteroid impacting the Moon instead. This possibility could lead to particles being detached from the Moon and the asteroid, potentially threatening human space infrastructure and operations.

The James Webb Space Telescope played a crucial role in refining the size estimate of the asteroid, providing direct indicators of its diameter through thermal emission measurements at infrared wavelengths. The team’s analysis resulted in an estimate that there is a 95% chance the diameter is between 46 and 74 meters.

Despite the reduced risk, Earth-based and space-based observatories will continue tracking YR4 until it becomes unobservable from Earth in April or May 2025. The success of this project highlights the importance of persistent work and collaboration among researchers, policymakers, and engineers to mitigate the risks posed by near-Earth objects.

The University of Helsinki has been at the forefront of asteroid research, combining astronomical observations with laboratory measurements, theoretical, and numerical research. This expertise is critical for assessing potential impact risks caused by near-Earth objects and will be a valuable asset in the newly established Space Situational Awareness Center.

Asteroids, Comets and Meteors

A Mysterious Mineral in Asteroid Ryugu Challenges Our Understanding of Planetary History

A surprising discovery from a tiny grain of asteroid Ryugu has rocked scientists’ understanding of how our Solar System evolved. Researchers found djerfisherite—a mineral typically born in scorching, chemically reduced conditions and never before seen in Ryugu-like meteorites—inside a sample returned by Japan’s Hayabusa2 mission. Its presence suggests either Ryugu once experienced unexpectedly high temperatures or that exotic materials from other parts of the solar system somehow made their way into its formation. Like discovering a palm tree fossil in Arctic ice, this rare find challenges everything we thought we knew about primitive asteroids and the early mixing of planetary ingredients.

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As scientists continue to explore the vast expanse of our solar system, they are constantly reminded that there is still much we don’t know about its origins and evolution. A recent discovery in the asteroid Ryugu has shed new light on this phenomenon, leaving researchers with more questions than answers.

The Hayabusa2 mission returned pristine samples from the C-type asteroid Ryugu on December 6, 2020. These samples were crucial for improving our understanding of primitive asteroids and their role in forming the Solar System. However, a research team at Hiroshima University made an unexpected find – the presence of djerfisherite, a potassium-containing iron-nickel sulfide mineral, in one of these Ryugu grains.

Djerfisherite is typically associated with enstatite chondrites, which form under very reduced conditions. Its occurrence in CI chondrites, like those found in Ryugu, has sparked debate among scientists about the asteroid’s history and formation processes. Associate Professor Masaaki Miyahara explained that djerfisherite’s presence suggests either an unexpected local environment or long-distance transport in the early solar system.

The research team had been conducting experiments to understand the effects of terrestrial weathering on Ryugu grains. While observing these grains using field-emission transmission electron microscopy (FE-TEM), they stumbled upon djerfisherite in grain number 15, sample plate C0105-042. This finding opens new avenues for understanding the complexity of primitive asteroids and challenges our previous notion that Ryugu is compositionally uniform.

Ryugu’s parent body is believed to have formed between 1.8 to 2.9 million years after the beginning of the Solar System. During this time, it existed in the outer region of the solar system, where water and carbon dioxide were present as ice. The temperature inside the parent body remained below approximately 50℃. However, the presence of djerfisherite in Ryugu suggests that materials from different formation histories may have mixed early in the solar system’s evolution.

Two hypotheses have been proposed to explain this phenomenon: either djerfisherite arrived from another source during the formation of Ryugu’s parent body or it was formed intrinsically when the temperature of Ryugu was raised to above 350 ℃. Preliminary evidence indicates that the intrinsic formation hypothesis is more likely to be true.

Ultimately, scientists aim to reconstruct the early mixing processes and thermal histories that shaped small bodies like Ryugu. By understanding these events, we can gain a better grasp of planetary formation and material transport in the early solar system. The discovery of djerfisherite in asteroid Ryugu has taken us one step closer to unraveling this enigma.

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Asteroids, Comets and Meteors

Building on Mars: The Future of Space Colonization

Imagine printing your Martian home from dust, sunlight, and a bit of biology. A new synthetic lichen system uses fungi and bacteria to grow building materials directly from Martian soil, completely autonomously and without human help.

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The possibility of inhabiting Mars has long been a staple of science fiction, but recent successful landings on the Red Planet have made this idea increasingly plausible. However, building structures millions of miles from Earth is a daunting task, especially considering the costs and logistics involved in sending massive payloads into space. One potential solution to this problem lies in using the resources already present on Mars to build our dream homes.

Dr. Congrui Grace Jin, an assistant professor at Texas A&M University, has made significant progress towards making this vision a reality. Her research team, in collaboration with the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, has developed a synthetic lichen system that can form building materials using Martian regolith – a mixture of dust, sand, and rocks.

This breakthrough technology uses heterotrophic filamentous fungi as bonding material producers, paired with photoautotrophic diazotrophic cyanobacteria to create a self-sustaining system. The fungi promote the production of biominerals, while the cyanobacteria fix carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, creating oxygen and organic nutrients that support the growth of both components.

The synthetic lichen system can grow without any external intervention or nutrient supply, making it an ideal solution for Martian construction. This technology has the potential to revolutionize extraterrestrial exploration and colonization by enabling structures to be built in even the most demanding environments.

The next step in this research is the creation of regolith ink to print bio-structures using direct ink writing techniques. The implications of this technology are significant, not only for space exploration but also for sustainable building practices on Earth.

As we continue to push the boundaries of what is possible in space colonization, it’s exciting to think about the possibilities that lie ahead. With advancements like Dr. Jin’s synthetic lichen system, we may soon be able to build our dream homes on Mars and beyond.

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Asteroids, Comets and Meteors

Tiny Orange Beads Reveal Moon’s Explosive Past: Unraveling the Secrets of Lunar Volcanism

When Apollo astronauts stumbled across shimmering orange beads on the moon, they had no idea they were gazing at ancient relics of violent volcanic activity. These glass spheres, tiny yet mesmerizing, formed billions of years ago during fiery eruptions that launched molten droplets skyward, instantly freezing in space. Now, using advanced instruments that didn’t exist in the 1970s, scientists have examined the beads in unprecedented detail. The result is a remarkable window into the moon s dynamic geological history, revealing how eruption styles evolved and how lunar conditions once mirrored explosive events we see on Earth today.

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The Apollo astronauts stumbled upon an unexpected treasure on the lunar surface – tiny, bright orange glass beads that had been frozen in time for billions of years. These minuscule, 1mm-wide capsules hold secrets about the moon’s explosive past, revealing a chapter of volcanic eruptions that shaped the satellite’s history.

Researchers led by Thomas Williams, Stephen Parman, and Alberto Saal from Brown University, in collaboration with WashU scientists, have employed cutting-edge techniques to study these ancient artifacts. Using instruments like NanoSIMS 50, atom probe tomography, scanning electron microscopy, transmission electron microscopy, and energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, they have gained unprecedented insights into the surface of the beads.

Each glass bead is a testament to the moon’s volcanic activity, where lava droplets solidified instantly in the cold vacuum surrounding the satellite. The colors, shapes, and chemical compositions of these tiny minerals are unlike anything found on Earth, serving as probes into the pressure, temperature, and chemical environment of lunar eruptions 3.5 billion years ago.

The study reveals that the style of volcanic eruptions changed over time, much like reading the journal of an ancient lunar volcanologist. These findings not only shed light on the moon’s past but also demonstrate the importance of preserving samples for future generations, as technology advances and new instruments become available to uncover hidden secrets.

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