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Asteroids, Comets and Meteors

Asteroid Impact Threat Estimates Improved for Earth and the Moon

An international team is currently closely tracking the near-Earth asteroid 2024 YR4. The impact probability estimates for the year 2032 has been reduced from a peak of 3 percent to below 0.001 percent.

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The threat posed by near-Earth asteroids has long been a concern for scientists and policymakers. Recently, an international team of researchers has been closely tracking the asteroid 2024 YR4, which initially sparked a first-ever notification from the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) on January 29th, 2025. The early calculations predicted an impact probability of 1.3% with Earth on December 22nd, 2032, and estimated its size between 40 and 90 meters.

However, the team’s observations using the Nordic Optical Telescope in La Palma, Canary Islands, revealed a significant drop in the impact probability to below 0.001%. This reduction was achieved through precise measurements of the asteroid’s position and motion, as well as analysis of its rotation, size, and shape. The team’s findings were published in a recent article.

While the threat to Earth has decreased significantly, the researchers have identified a new risk: there is currently a 4% chance of the asteroid impacting the Moon instead. This possibility could lead to particles being detached from the Moon and the asteroid, potentially threatening human space infrastructure and operations.

The James Webb Space Telescope played a crucial role in refining the size estimate of the asteroid, providing direct indicators of its diameter through thermal emission measurements at infrared wavelengths. The team’s analysis resulted in an estimate that there is a 95% chance the diameter is between 46 and 74 meters.

Despite the reduced risk, Earth-based and space-based observatories will continue tracking YR4 until it becomes unobservable from Earth in April or May 2025. The success of this project highlights the importance of persistent work and collaboration among researchers, policymakers, and engineers to mitigate the risks posed by near-Earth objects.

The University of Helsinki has been at the forefront of asteroid research, combining astronomical observations with laboratory measurements, theoretical, and numerical research. This expertise is critical for assessing potential impact risks caused by near-Earth objects and will be a valuable asset in the newly established Space Situational Awareness Center.

Asteroids, Comets and Meteors

Scientists Uncover Hidden Secret to Earth’s Water Origin

Researchers have helped overturn the popular theory that water on Earth originated from asteroids bombarding its surface; Scientists have analyzed a meteorite analogous to the early Earth to understand the origin of hydrogen on our planet. The research team demonstrated that the material which built our planet was far richer in hydrogen than previously thought. The findings support the theory that the formation of habitable conditions on Earth did not rely on asteroids hitting the Earth.

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The long-standing debate over the origin of water on Earth has finally been put to rest by a team of researchers at the University of Oxford. Using a rare type of meteorite known as an enstatite chondrite, which has a composition analogous to that of the early Earth (4.55 billion years ago), they have uncovered crucial evidence for the origin of water on our planet.

The research team analyzed the elemental composition of a meteorite known as LAR 12252, originally collected from Antarctica. They used an elemental analysis technique called X-Ray Absorption Near Edge Structure (XANES) spectroscopy at the Diamond Light Source synchrotron at Harwell, Oxfordshire. This powerful tool allowed them to search for sulphur-bearing compounds in the meteorite’s structure.

When scanning the sample, the team focussed their efforts on the non-crystalline parts of the chondrules, where hydrogen had been found before. However, serendipitously, they discovered that the matrix itself was incredibly rich in hydrogen sulphide. In fact, their analysis found that the amount of hydrogen in the matrix was five times higher than that of the non-crystalline sections.

This finding suggests that the material which our planet was built from was far richer in hydrogen than previously thought. Without hydrogen, a fundamental elemental building-block of water, it would have been impossible for our planet to develop the conditions to support life.

The research team’s discovery contradicts the popular theory that water on Earth originated from asteroids bombarding its surface. Instead, their findings suggest that Earth had the hydrogen it needed to create water from when it first formed. This supports the idea that the formation of water on Earth was a natural process, rather than a fluke of hydrated asteroids bombarding our planet after it formed.

Tom Barrett, DPhil student in the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Oxford, who led the study, said: “We were incredibly excited when the analysis told us the sample contained hydrogen sulphide — just not where we expected! Because the likelihood of this hydrogen sulphide originating from terrestrial contamination is very low, this research provides vital evidence to support the theory that water on Earth is native — that it is a natural outcome of what our planet is made of.”

Co-author Associate Professor James Bryson (Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford) added: “A fundamental question for planetary scientists is how Earth came to look like it does today. We now think that the material that built our planet — which we can study using these rare meteorites — was far richer in hydrogen than we thought previously. This finding supports the idea that the formation of water on Earth was a natural process, rather than a fluke of hydrated asteroids bombarding our planet after it formed.”

The discovery of this hidden secret to Earth’s water origin has significant implications for our understanding of the planet’s history and evolution. It suggests that the conditions necessary for life to arise were present from the very beginning, and that the formation of water was an integral part of the process.

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Asteroids, Comets and Meteors

The Sun’s Hidden Influence on Comet Orbits and Meteor Showers

Why do comets and their meteoroid streams weave in and out of Earth’s orbit and their orbits disperse over time? Researchers show that this is not due to the random pull of the planets, but rather the kick they receive from a moving Sun.

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The movement of comets and their associated meteoroid streams has long been a topic of interest for astronomers. Researchers at the SETI Institute have made a groundbreaking discovery that sheds new light on this phenomenon. In a recent study published in the journal Icarus, the team found that the Sun’s motion around the solar system barycenter plays a crucial role in the orbital evolution of long-period comets.

The solar system barycenter is the point where the Sun and planets all orbit together, serving as a reference frame for understanding their movements. Traditionally, astronomers have placed the Sun at the center of our solar system due to its massive size and gravitational influence. However, this perspective can be misleading when it comes to understanding the complex interactions between comets and the Sun.

Lead author Stuart Pilorz explained that long-period comets spend most of their time far away from the solar system, where they are affected by the Sun’s motion around the barycenter. As these comets approach Jupiter’s orbit, they come under the influence of the Sun, leading to a change in their orbital plane and inclination.

Pilorz noted that this phenomenon is similar to bouncing a tennis ball off the front or back of a moving train. The Sun’s motion provides a gravitational boost or braking effect on the comets, which can cause them to disperse over time. This randomness is primarily due to the Sun’s position and velocity in its orbit around the barycenter when each meteoroid encounters it.

The researchers’ findings have significant implications for predicting meteor showers. By taking into account the Sun’s motion around the barycenter, astronomers can better understand how comets and their associated meteoroid streams disperse over time. This knowledge can be used to search for parent comets of long-period comet meteoroid streams.

In addition, the study has shed new light on the relationship between planetary forces and the precession of comet orbits. The team’s calculations suggest that the measured shower dispersions can be used to determine the ages of over 200 long-period comet meteoroid streams.

The discovery made by the SETI Institute researchers highlights the importance of considering the Sun’s motion around the barycenter in understanding complex astronomical phenomena. Their work demonstrates the value of interdisciplinary research and collaboration, and it has paved the way for further studies on the orbital evolution of comets and the resulting meteor showers.

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Asteroids, Comets and Meteors

Uncovering Space Secrets: Scientists Reveal Why We Rarely Find Carbon-Rich Asteroids on Earth

Researchers may have answered one of space science’s long-running questions — and it could change our understanding of how life began. Carbon-rich asteroids are abundant in space yet make up less than 5 per cent of meteorites found on Earth.

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Carbon-rich asteroids are abundant in space, but make up less than 5 per cent of meteorites found on Earth. This paradox has puzzled scientists for years, and a recent study by an international team of researchers may have finally provided an answer. By analyzing close to 8500 meteoroids and meteorite impacts from 19 fireball observation networks across 39 countries, the team discovered that Earth’s atmosphere and the Sun act like giant filters, destroying fragile, carbon-rich (carbonaceous) meteoroids before they reach the ground.

The research, published in Nature Astronomy, was conducted by a team of scientists from Curtin University’s School of Earth and Planetary Sciences, the International Centre for Radio Astronomy (ICRAR), the Paris Observatory, and other institutions. According to co-author Dr Hadrien Devillepoix from Curtin’s Space Science and Technology Centre and Curtin Institute of Radio Astronomy (CIRA), “We’ve long suspected weak, carbonaceous material doesn’t survive atmospheric entry. What this research shows is many of these meteoroids don’t even make it that far: they break apart from being heated repeatedly as they pass close to the Sun.”

The findings have significant implications for our understanding of how life began on Earth. Carbonaceous meteorites are particularly important because they contain water and organic molecules, which are key ingredients linked to the origin of life. The study’s lead author, Dr Patrick Shober from the Paris Observatory, explained that “carbon-rich meteorites are some of the most chemically primitive materials we can study – they contain water, organic molecules and even amino acids. However, we have so few of them in our meteorite collections that we risk having an incomplete picture of what’s actually out there in space and how the building blocks of life arrived on Earth.”

The research also found that meteoroids created by tidal disruptions – when asteroids break apart from close encounters with planets – are especially fragile and almost never survive atmospheric entry. This finding could influence future asteroid missions, impact hazard assessments, and even theories on how Earth got its water and organic compounds to allow life to begin.

Overall, the study provides new insights into the formation of our solar system and the conditions that made life possible. It also highlights the importance of continued research in understanding the mysteries of space and the secrets it holds for us.

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