Scientists have long been fascinated by volcanoes that seem to erupt with little or no warning signs. These “stealthy” volcanoes can be particularly hazardous as they often catch people off guard, leading to increased risk for nearby populations. In a breakthrough study published in Frontiers in Earth Science, researchers have developed a model that helps explain and predict stealthy eruptions.

The scientists, led by Dr. Yuyu Li of the University of Illinois, focused on the Veniaminof volcano in Alaska, which is carefully monitored but has only shown clear warning signs for two out of its 13 eruptions since 1993. A notable example was a 2021 eruption that wasn’t detected until three days after it started.

“Our work helps explain how this happens by identifying the key internal conditions – such as low magma supply and warm host rock – that make eruptions stealthy,” said Dr. Li.

The researchers created a model of the volcano’s behavior in different conditions, which would change the impact of a filling magma reservoir on the ground above. They compared the models to monitoring data from three summer seasons before the 2018 stealthy eruption and found that a high flow of magma into a small chamber is likely to produce a stealthy eruption.

The model also suggests that when magma flows into larger, flatter chambers, it may cause minimal earthquakes, while smaller, more elongated chambers may produce little deformation of the ground. However, stealthy eruptions only happen when all the conditions are in place – the right magma flow and the right chamber size, shape, and depth.

Furthermore, if the rock of the chamber is warm due to consistent magma presence over time, size and shape matter less, increasing the likelihood of a stealthy eruption.

To mitigate the impact of these potential surprise eruptions, scientists recommend integrating high-precision instruments like borehole tiltmeters and strainmeters and newer approaches such as infrasound and gas emission monitoring. Machine learning has also shown promise in detecting subtle changes in volcanic behavior.

The researchers believe that combining their models with real-time observations represents a promising direction for improving volcano forecasting, ultimately leading to more effective responses to protect nearby communities.

The Unyielding Ecosystem: Why Past Mass Extinctions Haven’t Broken Earth’s Balance

For millions of years, large herbivores have been shaping our planet’s landscapes. From majestic mammoths to agile rhinos and gentle giant deer, these creatures have played a vital role in maintaining the balance of ecosystems. A recent study published in Nature Communications reveals how these giants responded to significant environmental shifts, only to find that their ecosystems remained remarkably resilient.

Researchers from the University of Gothenburg analyzed fossil records of over 3,000 large herbivores spanning 60 million years. The findings showed that despite species coming and going, the overall structure of large herbivore communities remained surprisingly stable. This is akin to a football team changing players during a match but still maintaining the same formation.

Two major global shifts have triggered significant transformations in these ecosystems. The first occurred around 21 million years ago when the closure of the ancient Tethys Sea created a land bridge between Africa and Eurasia, unleashing a wave of migrations that reshaped ecosystems across the globe. Ancestors of modern elephants began to spread across Europe and Asia, while other large plant-eaters adapted to new territories.

The second global shift happened around 10 million years ago as Earth’s climate became cooler and drier. Expanding grasslands and declining forests led to the rise of grazing species with tougher teeth, while many forest-dwelling herbivores gradually disappeared. This marked the beginning of a long decline in functional diversity among these animals.

Despite these losses, the researchers found that the overall ecological structure of large herbivore communities remained stable. It’s as if different players came into play, and the communities changed, but they fulfilled similar ecological roles, so the overall structure remained the same.

This resilience has lasted for the past 4.5 million years, enduring ice ages and other environmental crises up to the present day. However, the researchers caution that the ongoing loss of biodiversity – accelerated by human activity – could eventually overwhelm the system.

“Our results show that ecosystems have an amazing capacity to adapt,” says Juan L. Cantalapiedra, researcher at MNCN in Spain and senior author of the study. “But the rate of change is so much faster this time. There’s a limit. If we keep losing species and ecological roles, we may soon reach a third global tipping point, one that we’re helping to accelerate.”

The fate of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) hangs precariously in the balance, with scientists warning that the next few years will be crucial in determining its future. A recent study published in Communications Earth & Environment has shed light on the alarming consequences of WAIS collapse, which could trigger a devastating four meters of global sea level rise over hundreds of years.

The researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), NORCE, and Northumbria University in the UK conducted extensive model simulations spanning 800,000 years to understand how the vast Antarctic Ice Sheet has responded to Earth’s climate fluctuations. Their findings revealed two stable states: one with WAIS intact, which is our current state, and another where the ice sheet has collapsed.

The primary driver of this collapse is rising ocean temperatures around Antarctica, which are mostly supplied by the ocean rather than the atmosphere. Once WAIS tips into the collapsed state, it would take several thousands of years for temperatures to drop back to pre-industrial conditions, reversing the damage.

“We have two stable states: one with WAIS intact and another where it has collapsed,” said lead author David Chandler from NORCE. “Once tipping has been triggered, it’s self-sustaining and seems very unlikely to be stopped before contributing to about four meters of sea-level rise. And this would be practically irreversible.”

The consequences of WAIS collapse would be catastrophic, with four meters of sea level rise projected to displace millions of people worldwide and wreak havoc on coastal communities.

However, there is still hope for a better outcome. Immediate actions to reduce emissions could avoid a catastrophic outcome, giving us a narrow window to act before it’s too late.

“It takes tens of thousands of years for an ice sheet to grow, but just decades to destabilise it by burning fossil fuels,” said co-author Julius Garbe from PIK. “Now we only have a narrow window to act.”