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Earth & Climate

Collaboration can unlock Australia’s energy transition without sacrificing natural capital

New research demonstrates that with collaboration between stakeholders, Australia can fully decarbonize its domestic and energy export economies by 2060 — a feat requiring $6.2 trillion USD and around 110,000 square kilomters of land — while avoiding harm to important areas for biodiversity outcomes, safeguarding agricultural activities, and respecting Indigenous land rights.

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Collaboration can unlock Australia’s energy transition without sacrificing natural capital, according to new research led by Princeton and The University of Queensland. The study demonstrates that Australia can fully decarbonize its domestic and energy export economies by 2060 while avoiding harm to important areas for biodiversity outcomes, safeguarding agricultural activities, and respecting Indigenous land rights.

“The amount of land required for the energy transition is massive, and the speed at which we need to be deploying renewable infrastructure is unprecedented,” said first author Andrew Pascale. “At the same time, we’ve shown here that not only can it be done, but that it can and should be done while incorporating the perspectives of many different stakeholders.”

If stakeholders work collaboratively to identify the most suitable areas for development, the researchers found it would be possible to site the over 110,000 square kilometers of renewable energy infrastructure needed by 2060 to reach net-zero in Australia while preserving lands for biodiversity and agriculture.

The researchers drew from their prior work on the Net Zero Australia study, a multi-year, multi-institutional collaboration that charted unique pathways for Australia to fully decarbonize and maintain its domestic and export economy. During this project, the team consulted with stakeholder groups including the National Farmers Federation, National Native Title Council, and the Australian Conservation Foundation.

In the present study, the researchers incorporated stakeholder values about land use into their technoeconomic model, identifying the most suitable lands for renewable energy development and those that should be excluded from consideration. This approach has been proposed as a ‘traffic-light’ system for siting renewable infrastructure, where green areas are considered safe for development, orange areas require further stakeholder engagement, and red areas are off-limits.

The researchers contrasted their proposed system with the existing renewable energy zones used by the Australian Energy Regulator, noting that at least two existing zones have over 90% overlap with biodiversity exclusion areas. “There is a difference between modeling a net-zero pathway and planning one,” Pascale said. “What looks good from the standpoint of resource quality and proximity to existing infrastructure might not hold when you simultaneously consider biodiversity and other national commitments.”

The study highlights the importance of flexible, robust net-zero pathways that account for land-use uncertainties. Such a methodology would require moving away from conventional, top-down modeling approaches to flexible pathways that are conscious of different and sometimes competing priorities for natural capital.

“We’ve identified a need for a government planning and approval process that integrates the diverse interests of energy development, Indigenous land rights, environmental values like biodiversity, and natural resources more broadly,” said co-author Chris Greig. “Those perspectives are typically siloed, which is a recipe for decisions that make unacceptable tradeoffs and compromise biodiversity alongside Indigenous and farmers’ rights.”

The researchers suggested that an immediate planning goal would be to prioritize turning possible development sites into ones acceptable to diverse stakeholders as quickly as possible. They also underscored several uncertainties, such as missing critical habitat data for many Australian species and how all species might respond to climate change, which would require greater flexibility within individual transition pathways accompanied by regular model updates.

However, the researchers emphasized that such uncertainties should not prevent planners from using the best available data to take action on renewable energy development. “We have to deal with the problem we are facing today, thinking about where endangered species are right now and focusing on keeping those habitats intact,” said co-author James Watson. “We can take action while acknowledging we need better data, which is far preferable to simply forgetting or ignoring biodiversity.”

“I see this paper as a wake-up call,” he added. “The take-home message is that we need a clean energy future, and that we need to plan for that future — and the large spatial footprint it will require — without defeating our other societal goals.”

Air Quality

Greenland’s Glacial Runoff Fuels Explosive Growth in Ocean Life

NASA-backed simulations reveal that meltwater from Greenland’s Jakobshavn Glacier lifts deep-ocean nutrients to the surface, sparking large summer blooms of phytoplankton that feed the Arctic food web.

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Greenland’s glacial runoff is fueling an explosion in ocean life, according to a recent study supported by NASA. As the ice sheet melts, it releases massive amounts of freshwater into the sea, which then interacts with the surrounding saltwater and nutrients from the depths.

The researchers used a state-of-the-art computer model called Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean-Darwin (ECCO-Darwin) to simulate the complex interactions between biology, chemistry, and physics in one pocket along Greenland’s coastline. The study revealed that glacial runoff delivers nutrients like iron and nitrate, essential for phytoplankton growth, to the surface waters.

Phytoplankton are tiny plant-like organisms that form the base of the ocean food web. They take up carbon dioxide and produce oxygen as byproducts of photosynthesis. In Arctic waters, their growth rate has surged 57% between 1998 and 2018 alone. The study found that glacial runoff boosts summertime phytoplankton growth by 15 to 40% in the study area.

Increased phytoplankton blooms can have a positive impact on Greenland’s marine animals and fisheries. However, untangling the impacts of climate change on the ecosystem will take time and further research. The team plans to extend their simulations to the whole Greenland coast and beyond.

The study also highlights the interconnectedness of the ocean ecosystem, with phytoplankton blooms influencing the carbon cycle both positively and negatively. While glacial runoff makes seawater less able to dissolve carbon dioxide, the bigger blooms of phytoplankton take up more carbon dioxide from the air as they photosynthesize, offsetting this loss.

The researchers emphasize that their approach is applicable to any region, making it a powerful tool for studying ocean ecosystems worldwide. As climate change continues to reshape our planet, understanding these complex interactions will be essential for predicting and mitigating its impacts on marine life and ecosystems.

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Atmosphere

NASA’s SWOT Satellite Captures Kamchatka Megaquake Tsunami in Stunning Detail

When a massive 8.8 magnitude earthquake struck off Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula, NASA and CNES’s SWOT satellite captured a rare and detailed picture of the tsunami that followed. Recorded just over an hour after the quake, the satellite revealed the wave’s height, shape, and path, offering scientists an unprecedented multidimensional view from space.

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The recent megaquake that struck off the coast of Russia’s Kamchatka Peninsula has been captured in striking detail by NASA’s SWOT satellite. Launched jointly with the French space agency CNES, the SWOT satellite is equipped with a unique radar system that can measure ocean topography and water levels across vast areas.

On July 30, at around 11:25 a.m. local time, an 8.8 magnitude earthquake struck off the coast of Kamchatka, generating a massive tsunami wave. The SWOT satellite captured the leading edge of this tsunami just 70 minutes after the quake hit. This remarkable footage has provided scientists with crucial data to improve tsunami forecast models.

The data collected by the SWOT satellite included measurements of the wave height exceeding 1.5 feet (45 centimeters), as well as a detailed look at the shape and direction of travel of the leading edge of the tsunami. These observations have been plotted against a forecast model produced by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Center for Tsunami Research.

Comparing these observations to the model helps forecasters validate their predictions, ensuring that they can provide accurate early warnings to coastal communities in the event of a tsunami. As Nadya Vinogradova Shiffer, NASA Earth lead and SWOT program scientist at NASA Headquarters, explained, “The power of SWOT’s broad, paintbrush-like strokes over the ocean is in providing crucial real-world validation, unlocking new physics, and marking a leap towards more accurate early warnings and safer futures.”

Ben Hamlington, an oceanographer at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, highlighted the significance of the 1.5-foot-tall wave captured by SWOT, saying that what might seem like a small wave in open waters can become a massive 30-foot wave in shallower coastal areas.

The data collected by the SWOT satellite has already helped scientists improve their tsunami forecast models at NOAA’s Center for Tsunami Research. This is a crucial step towards enhancing operational tsunami forecasts and saving lives. As Josh Willis, a JPL oceanographer, noted, “The satellite observations help researchers to better reverse engineer the cause of a tsunami, and in this case, they also showed us that NOAA’s tsunami forecast was right on the money.”

This breakthrough has significant implications for coastal communities around the world. By providing more accurate early warnings, SWOT data can save lives and reduce damage caused by tsunamis. As Vasily Titov, the center’s chief scientist in Seattle, emphasized, “It suggests SWOT data could significantly enhance operational tsunami forecasts — a capability sought since the 2004 Sumatra event.” The devastating tsunami generated by that quake killed thousands of people and caused widespread destruction in Indonesia.

The SWOT satellite was jointly developed by NASA and CNES, with contributions from the Canadian Space Agency (CSA) and the UK Space Agency. NASA JPL leads the U.S. component of the project, providing a Ka-band radar interferometer instrument, a GPS science receiver, a laser retroreflector, a two-beam microwave radiometer, and NASA instrument operations.

This groundbreaking technology has opened up new possibilities for scientists to better understand ocean dynamics and improve tsunami forecasting models. As SWOT continues to capture stunning images of our oceans, it will undoubtedly play a vital role in enhancing operational tsunami forecasts and saving lives around the world.

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Climate

The Ocean’s Fragile Fortresses: Uncovering the Impact of Climate Change on Bryozoans

Mediterranean bryozoans, including the “false coral,” are showing alarming changes in structure and microbiomes under acidification and warming. Field studies at volcanic CO₂ vents reveal that these stressors combined sharply reduce survival, posing risks to marine ecosystems.

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The Ocean’s Fragile Fortresses: Uncovering the Impact of Climate Change on Bryozoans

Bryozoans, small colonial invertebrates, play a vital role in forming marine habitats. However, their response to environmental changes has long been overlooked. A recent study published in Communications Biology sheds light on how ocean acidification and warming can affect bryozoan colonies, with crucial implications for marine conservation.

The researchers from the Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC) used a natural laboratory on the island of Ischia, Italy, to simulate the conditions projected for the end of the century. They analyzed the morphology, skeleton mineralogy, and microbiome of two bryozoan species exposed to these conditions. The findings revealed that the species exhibit some acclimation capacity, modifying their skeletal mineralogy to become more resistant.

However, a loss in functional microbial diversity was observed, with a decline in genera potentially involved in key processes such as nutrition, defense, or resistance to environmental stress. This suggests that even if colonies look externally healthy, changes in the microbiome could serve as early bioindicators of environmental stress.

The study also considered the effects of rising temperatures, another key factor in climate change. The models used indicate that the combination of these two stressors intensifies the effects observed, significantly reducing the coverage of the encrusting bryozoan and increasing mortality.

These findings have important implications for marine conservation. Habitat-forming species like bryozoans are not only vulnerable but their disappearance could trigger cascading effects on many other species that rely on them for shelter or food. The characterization of the microbiome and preliminary identification of potentially beneficial microorganisms open new research avenues to enhance the resilience of holobionts (host and its associated microbiome) through nature-based approaches.

The complexity of this issue demands integrated analyses, highlighting the importance of interdisciplinary approaches in anticipating future scenarios and protecting marine ecosystems.

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