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Earth & Climate

Collaboration can unlock Australia’s energy transition without sacrificing natural capital

New research demonstrates that with collaboration between stakeholders, Australia can fully decarbonize its domestic and energy export economies by 2060 — a feat requiring $6.2 trillion USD and around 110,000 square kilomters of land — while avoiding harm to important areas for biodiversity outcomes, safeguarding agricultural activities, and respecting Indigenous land rights.

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Collaboration can unlock Australia’s energy transition without sacrificing natural capital, according to new research led by Princeton and The University of Queensland. The study demonstrates that Australia can fully decarbonize its domestic and energy export economies by 2060 while avoiding harm to important areas for biodiversity outcomes, safeguarding agricultural activities, and respecting Indigenous land rights.

“The amount of land required for the energy transition is massive, and the speed at which we need to be deploying renewable infrastructure is unprecedented,” said first author Andrew Pascale. “At the same time, we’ve shown here that not only can it be done, but that it can and should be done while incorporating the perspectives of many different stakeholders.”

If stakeholders work collaboratively to identify the most suitable areas for development, the researchers found it would be possible to site the over 110,000 square kilometers of renewable energy infrastructure needed by 2060 to reach net-zero in Australia while preserving lands for biodiversity and agriculture.

The researchers drew from their prior work on the Net Zero Australia study, a multi-year, multi-institutional collaboration that charted unique pathways for Australia to fully decarbonize and maintain its domestic and export economy. During this project, the team consulted with stakeholder groups including the National Farmers Federation, National Native Title Council, and the Australian Conservation Foundation.

In the present study, the researchers incorporated stakeholder values about land use into their technoeconomic model, identifying the most suitable lands for renewable energy development and those that should be excluded from consideration. This approach has been proposed as a ‘traffic-light’ system for siting renewable infrastructure, where green areas are considered safe for development, orange areas require further stakeholder engagement, and red areas are off-limits.

The researchers contrasted their proposed system with the existing renewable energy zones used by the Australian Energy Regulator, noting that at least two existing zones have over 90% overlap with biodiversity exclusion areas. “There is a difference between modeling a net-zero pathway and planning one,” Pascale said. “What looks good from the standpoint of resource quality and proximity to existing infrastructure might not hold when you simultaneously consider biodiversity and other national commitments.”

The study highlights the importance of flexible, robust net-zero pathways that account for land-use uncertainties. Such a methodology would require moving away from conventional, top-down modeling approaches to flexible pathways that are conscious of different and sometimes competing priorities for natural capital.

“We’ve identified a need for a government planning and approval process that integrates the diverse interests of energy development, Indigenous land rights, environmental values like biodiversity, and natural resources more broadly,” said co-author Chris Greig. “Those perspectives are typically siloed, which is a recipe for decisions that make unacceptable tradeoffs and compromise biodiversity alongside Indigenous and farmers’ rights.”

The researchers suggested that an immediate planning goal would be to prioritize turning possible development sites into ones acceptable to diverse stakeholders as quickly as possible. They also underscored several uncertainties, such as missing critical habitat data for many Australian species and how all species might respond to climate change, which would require greater flexibility within individual transition pathways accompanied by regular model updates.

However, the researchers emphasized that such uncertainties should not prevent planners from using the best available data to take action on renewable energy development. “We have to deal with the problem we are facing today, thinking about where endangered species are right now and focusing on keeping those habitats intact,” said co-author James Watson. “We can take action while acknowledging we need better data, which is far preferable to simply forgetting or ignoring biodiversity.”

“I see this paper as a wake-up call,” he added. “The take-home message is that we need a clean energy future, and that we need to plan for that future — and the large spatial footprint it will require — without defeating our other societal goals.”

Air Quality

Unlocking the Secrets of Environmental DNA: A Powerful Tool for Wildlife and Human Surveillance

Environmental DNA from the air, captured with simple air filters, can track everything from illegal drugs to the wildlife it was originally designed to study.

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Dublin, a city known for its warm welcome and lively traditional music, has an unsuspecting secret – the air is teeming with DNA from various species. From cannabis to bobcats, even magic mushrooms – at least their DNA – are floating on the breeze. A new study reveals that this phenomenon can be leveraged to track wildlife, viruses, and other substances in unprecedented ways.

David Duffy, Ph.D., a professor of wildlife disease genomics at the University of Florida, has developed innovative methods for deciphering environmental DNA (eDNA). His lab has been studying sea turtle genetics using eDNA from water samples. Expanding on this research, they’ve created tools to study every species – including humans – from DNA captured in environmental samples like air filters.

“What we’re finding is that you can get intact large fragments of DNA from the air,” Duffy said. “That means you can study species without directly having to disturb them.” This approach opens up vast possibilities for tracking all species in an area simultaneously, from microbes and viruses to vertebrates like bobcats and humans.

A proof-of-concept experiment demonstrated that researchers could pick up signs of hundreds of different human pathogens from the Dublin air, including viruses and bacteria. This surveillance method can aid scientists in tracking emerging diseases. Additionally, it can track common allergens, such as peanut or pollen, more precisely than current methods allow.

In another test, Duffy’s lab identified the origin of bobcats and spiders whose DNA was collected from air filters in a Florida forest. This technique allows researchers to track endangered species without having to lay eyes on them or gather scat samples – all while knowing their exact origin is crucial for conservation efforts.

This powerful analysis is paired with impressive speed and efficiency, as demonstrated by the team’s ability to process DNA for every species in as little as a day using compact, affordable equipment, and software hosted in the cloud. This quick turnaround is orders of magnitude faster than was possible just a few years ago, making advanced environmental studies more accessible to scientists worldwide.

However, Duffy and his collaborators have called for ethical guardrails due to the potential for sensitive human genetic data to be identified using these tools.

“It seems like science fiction, but it’s becoming science fact,” Duffy said. “The technology is finally matching the scale of environmental problems.” As researchers continue to explore the capabilities of eDNA, they must also address the challenges and implications of this rapidly developing field.

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Early Climate

First Direct Observation of Trapped Waves that Shook the World in 2023

A new study has finally confirmed the theory that the cause of extraordinary global tremors in September — October 2023 was indeed two mega tsunamis in Greenland that became trapped standing waves. Using a brand-new type of satellite altimetry, the researchers provide the first observations to confirm the existence of these waves whose behavior is entirely unprecedented.

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The article begins by describing an extraordinary global seismic signal that occurred in September 2023. A peculiar pattern of earthquakes was observed every 90 seconds over nine days, only to be repeated a month later. Initially, two scientific studies proposed that these anomalies were caused by massive tsunamis triggered in a remote East Greenland fjord due to the warming of an unnamed glacier. The resulting waves became trapped in the fjord system, creating standing waves (seiches) that undulated back and forth.

However, despite extensive research, no direct observations of these seiches existed until now. Not even a Danish military vessel visiting the fjord three days into the first seismic event was able to detect the wave responsible for the mystery signals.

A new study from researchers at the University of Oxford has employed cutting-edge analysis techniques on satellite altimetry data from the Surface Water Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, launched in December 2022. The SWOT satellite measures ocean and surface water levels with unprecedented accuracy along a swath 30 miles wide using its Ka-band Radar Interferometer (KaRIn) instrument.

Utilizing KaRIn data, the researchers created elevation maps of the Greenland Fjord at various time points following the tsunamis. These maps showed clear, cross-channel slopes with height differences of up to two meters. Crucially, the slopes in these maps occurred in opposite directions, indicating that water moved backwards and forwards across the channel.

To confirm their theory, the researchers linked these observations to small movements of the Earth’s crust measured thousands of kilometers away, reconstructing weather and tidal conditions to rule out alternative explanations.

Lead author Thomas Monahan stated: “Climate change is giving rise to new, unseen extremes. These extremes are changing the fastest in remote areas, such as the Arctic, where our ability to measure them using physical sensors is limited. This study shows how we can leverage the next generation of satellite earth observation technologies to study these processes.”

Co-author Professor Thomas Adcock added: “This study is an example of how the next generation of satellite data can resolve phenomena that has remained a mystery in the past. We will be able to get new insights into ocean extremes such as tsunamis, storm surges, and freak waves. However, to get the most out of these data we will need to innovate and use both machine learning and our knowledge of ocean physics to interpret our new results.”

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Ancient DNA

The Tipping Point: Scientists Warn of West Antarctic Ice Sheet Collapse and its Devastating Consequences

Collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could be triggered with very little ocean warming above present-day, leading to a devastating four meters of global sea level rise to play out over hundreds of years according to a new study. However, the authors emphasize that immediate actions to reduce emissions could still avoid a catastrophic outcome.

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The fate of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) hangs precariously in the balance, with scientists warning that the next few years will be crucial in determining its future. A recent study published in Communications Earth & Environment has shed light on the alarming consequences of WAIS collapse, which could trigger a devastating four meters of global sea level rise over hundreds of years.

The researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), NORCE, and Northumbria University in the UK conducted extensive model simulations spanning 800,000 years to understand how the vast Antarctic Ice Sheet has responded to Earth’s climate fluctuations. Their findings revealed two stable states: one with WAIS intact, which is our current state, and another where the ice sheet has collapsed.

The primary driver of this collapse is rising ocean temperatures around Antarctica, which are mostly supplied by the ocean rather than the atmosphere. Once WAIS tips into the collapsed state, it would take several thousands of years for temperatures to drop back to pre-industrial conditions, reversing the damage.

“We have two stable states: one with WAIS intact and another where it has collapsed,” said lead author David Chandler from NORCE. “Once tipping has been triggered, it’s self-sustaining and seems very unlikely to be stopped before contributing to about four meters of sea-level rise. And this would be practically irreversible.”

The consequences of WAIS collapse would be catastrophic, with four meters of sea level rise projected to displace millions of people worldwide and wreak havoc on coastal communities.

However, there is still hope for a better outcome. Immediate actions to reduce emissions could avoid a catastrophic outcome, giving us a narrow window to act before it’s too late.

“It takes tens of thousands of years for an ice sheet to grow, but just decades to destabilise it by burning fossil fuels,” said co-author Julius Garbe from PIK. “Now we only have a narrow window to act.”

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