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Climate

Losing Forest Carbon Stocks Could Put Climate Goals Out of Reach

In the past, intact forests absorbed 7.8 billion tons of CO2 annually — about a fifth of all human emissions — but their carbon storage is increasingly at risk from climate change and human activities such as deforestation. A new study shows that failing to account for the potentially decreasing ability of forests to absorb CO2 could make reaching the Paris agreement targets significantly harder, if not impossible, and much more costly.

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Losing Forest Carbon Stocks Could Put Climate Goals Out of Reach

Intact forests have long been a vital component in the fight against climate change. These natural wonders absorb massive amounts of CO2, about a fifth of all human emissions, every year. However, their carbon storage capabilities are increasingly at risk due to climate change and human activities like deforestation.

A recent study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) highlights that failing to account for the potentially decreasing ability of forests to absorb CO2 could make reaching Paris agreement targets significantly harder, if not impossible. The study’s lead author, Michael Windisch, emphasizes that “delaying action leads to disproportionately higher costs.” Our current climate strategies rely on forests remaining intact and expanding, but escalating wildfires like those in California and continued deforestation in the Amazon threaten this gamble.

Climate change itself puts immense pressure on forest carbon stores. According to the study, postponing action to reduce emissions and protect forests could jeopardize climate targets. Windisch stresses that “we must act immediately to safeguard the carbon stored in forests.” Otherwise, compensating for potential forest carbon losses through steeper emissions cuts in key sectors like energy, industry, and transport will become increasingly expensive and possibly unattainable.

The study analyzed how climate targets can be met despite forests’ reduced capacity for storing carbon. Using integrated global land and water use modeling as well as an energy-economy modeling system, the research team compared foresighted policy responses with delayed and myopic approaches. The results revealed that even a five-year delay in responding to forest carbon loss would lead to a roughly two-fold increase in both the stringency and overall cost of measures to offset that lost carbon.

The study also highlighted that current models may be overly optimistic about future forest carbon storage, ignoring disturbances, overvaluing CO2 fertilization, and underestimating deforestation. To mitigate climate impacts, safeguard carbon stocks, and prevent escalating costs, scientists recommend immediate action. They stress the need for stronger forest conservation, faster decarbonization, and realistic forest carbon projections.

As Alexander Popp, head of PIK’s Land Use Transition lab, concludes: “Staying below critical warming thresholds requires more than just hoping forests will remain intact.” Alongside protecting forests, it is essential to promote sustainable land use practices – not only to preserve biodiversity but also to avoid drastic economic consequences and secure our climate future.

Climate

A 123,000-Year-Old Warning: Coral Fossils Reveal Rapid Sea-Level Rise Ahead

Ancient coral fossils from the remote Seychelles islands have unveiled a dramatic warning for our future—sea levels can rise in sudden, sharp bursts even when global temperatures stay steady.

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A groundbreaking discovery from fossilized corals in the Indian Ocean’s Seychelles islands is sending shockwaves through the scientific community. The findings suggest that sea levels could rise even more steeply than previously thought, posing a significant threat to coastal communities worldwide.

Researchers led by University of Wisconsin-Madison Professor Andrea Dutton and her team at the University of Florida analyzed fossilized corals from various elevations on the islands. By dating the fossils and examining the sediments around them, they gathered crucial insights into past sea levels. The results, published in Science Advances, confirm that global peak sea levels occurred between 122 and 123,000 years ago – a period known as the Last Interglacial.

During this time, global temperatures were remarkably similar to those of today. However, the researchers discovered three distinct periods of sudden and sharp sea-level rise over the 6,000 years leading up to peak sea levels. These abrupt pulses of sea-level rise were punctuated by periods of falling seas, pointing to times when polar ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica were changing rapidly.

“This is not good news for us as we head into the future,” says Dutton. “The potential for this very rapid, dynamic change in both ice sheet volume and sea level change is hugely important for coastal planners, policy makers, and those in the business of risk management.”

One of these sharp pulses of sea-level rise occurred at about the same time that the last remnants of a massive ice sheet in North America were likely collapsing. While there’s no large North American ice sheet today, Dutton says this finding has important implications for understanding the dynamics of other present-day ice sheets.

The researchers made another sobering observation: One of the sea-level rises they identified occurred at about the same time that the last remnants of a massive ice sheet in North America were likely collapsing. While there’s no large North American ice sheet today, Dutton says this finding has important implications for understanding the dynamics of other present-day ice sheets.

The study suggests that sea levels could rise up to 10 meters globally, just based on the amount of warming that has already occurred. However, Dutton emphasizes that society can blunt the impact of climate change on sea levels by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and implementing policies to mitigate its effects.

“We could be looking at upward of 10 meters of global average sea-level rise in the future,” she says. “The more we do to draw down our greenhouse gas emissions, and the faster we do so, could prevent the worst scenarios from becoming our lived reality.”

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Air Quality

Flash Floods on the Rise: How Climate Change Supercharges Summer Storms in the Alps

Fierce, fast summer rainstorms are on the rise in the Alps, and a 2 C temperature increase could double their frequency. A new study from researchers at the University of Lausanne and the University of Padova used data from nearly 300 Alpine weather stations to model this unsettling future.

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The European Alps, known for their breathtaking beauty and harsh weather conditions, are expected to become even more treacherous in the years to come. A recent study by scientists at the University of Lausanne (UNIL) and the University of Padova has found that climate change is supercharging summer storms in the region, leading to an increased risk of flash floods.

The researchers analyzed data from nearly 300 weather stations across Switzerland, Germany, Austria, France, and Italy. They discovered that a 2°C rise in regional temperature could double the frequency of short-lived summer rainstorms, making them more intense and destructive.

One such extreme event occurred in June 2018, when the city of Lausanne experienced an intense rainfall episode, with 41 millimeters of precipitation falling in just 10 minutes. The resulting flood caused estimated damage of 32 million Swiss Francs and left a trail of destruction in its wake.

These short-lived events are still rare in Switzerland today but are likely to become more frequent as the climate warms. Warm air retains more moisture, intensifying thunderstorm activity, and the Alpine region is warming faster than the global average. This makes it particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

The scientists developed a statistical model incorporating physics principles to establish a link between temperature and rainfall frequency. They then used regional climate projections to simulate the future frequency of extreme precipitation events.

Their results show that an increase of just 1°C would already be highly problematic, with sudden and massive arrival of large volumes of water triggering flash floods and debris flows. This can lead to infrastructure damage and casualties, making it essential to understand how these events may evolve with climate change.

“We need to plan appropriate adaptation strategies, such as improving urban drainage infrastructure where necessary,” warns Nadav Peleg, researcher at UNIL and first author of the study.

Francesco Marra, researcher at UNIPD and one of the main authors of the study adds: “An increase of 1°C is not hypothetical; it’s likely to occur in the coming decades. We are already witnessing a tendency for summer storms to intensify, and this trend is only expected to worsen in the years ahead.”

The findings of this study should serve as a wake-up call for policymakers and residents of the Alpine region to take action now and prepare for the increased risk of flash floods brought about by climate change.

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Climate

The Hidden Carbon Giants: Satellite Data Reveals a 40-Year Arctic Peatland Surge

Arctic peatlands are expanding with rising temperatures, storing more carbon at least for now. But future warming could reverse this benefit, releasing massive emissions.

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The Hidden Carbon Giants: Satellite Data Reveals a 40-Year Arctic Peatland Surge

Scientists have made a groundbreaking discovery about the Arctic region’s peatlands. Using satellite data, drones, and on-the-ground observations, researchers have found that these carbon-rich ecosystems have expanded significantly over the past 40 years. This expansion is largely attributed to the warming climate, which has improved growing conditions for plants in the Arctic.

Peatlands cover only 3% of the Earth’s surface but store about 600 billion tons of carbon – more than all the world’s forest biomass combined. The Arctic has large peatland areas, but they tend to dwindle towards the far north, where harsh conditions limit plant growth. In this study, researchers examined 16 sites across both low and high Arctic regions, comparing data from 1985-95 with the last 15-20 years.

The findings suggest that Arctic peatlands are expanding at more than two-thirds of the studied sites, with the largest changes observed in areas with the highest increases in summer temperature. The research team, led by the University of Exeter, used satellite data and ground-based observations to identify these trends.

While this discovery provides some positive news about the potential for Arctic peatlands to act as a natural carbon sink, the researchers caution that extreme future warming could cause widespread loss of peatlands – releasing stored carbon and further accelerating climate change.

“We know from paleo records that warmer periods in Earth’s history led to more carbon being stored in peatlands,” said Dr. Katherine Crichton. “Our new study puts these pieces together to examine whether our warming climate is causing peatland expansion – and we find strong evidence that it is.”

The research team, comprising scientists from the University of Exeter and other institutions, conducted extensive fieldwork and lab work over several years. Their findings were published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment.

As the researchers continue to study these carbon-rich ecosystems, they emphasize the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and stabilizing the climate to ensure the long-term health and sustainability of Arctic peatlands.

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