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Climate

Weak Links in African Swine Fever Outbreaks: Sampling and Lab Capacity Concerns

A model looked at the numbers associated with detecting and containing a potential African swine fever virus (ASFV) outbreak in the U.S. and found that sampling and laboratory capacity are areas of concern — particularly in areas with dense swine farm populations — when samples are tested within the state.

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African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious and deadly viral disease that affects pigs, with a mortality rate of up to 100%. The cost of an outbreak has been estimated at $80 billion. To manage an ASF outbreak effectively, testing and containing the infection are crucial.

Researchers from North Carolina State University used a model called PigSpread to simulate the spread of ASF in densely populated swine states. They found that sampling and laboratory capacity were significant concerns, particularly when samples were tested within the state.

During an outbreak, health officials must travel to farms, collect blood samples, and send them to labs for testing. To prevent the disease from spreading through sample collectors, they must wait 72 hours between sampling visits. The model used population and movement data to simulate the spread of ASF in both large and small outbreak scenarios.

The results showed a median of 27 outbreaks in 150 days. For the median outbreak scenario, blood and oral samples had to be taken from pigs in over 3,000 barns. Assuming that 31 samples per barn are necessary for surveillance, the lowest number of personnel needed to get samples without delaying the process varied between 136 and 367.

However, this number could increase to between 833 and 3,115 in large epidemic scenarios. The researchers estimated that in 50% of outbreak scenarios, at least 238 sample collectors would be required.

Laboratory capacity was also a concern, as only specific labs have the ability to process these samples. The model capped daily laboratory capacity in the study area at 1,000 samples per day. The median delay for processing without sample pooling was 92 days, which went up to a maximum of five years in the worst scenarios.

Mitigating factors such as reducing downtime for samplers and utilizing oral samples did decrease the sampling time, but further evaluation is needed. The researchers emphasized that looking closely at current sampling strategies could enhance preparedness before an outbreak.

Their work appears in Preventive Veterinary Medicine and is supported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service under award AP23VSSP0000C088.

Climate

The Ocean’s Fragile Fortresses: Uncovering the Impact of Climate Change on Bryozoans

Mediterranean bryozoans, including the “false coral,” are showing alarming changes in structure and microbiomes under acidification and warming. Field studies at volcanic CO₂ vents reveal that these stressors combined sharply reduce survival, posing risks to marine ecosystems.

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The Ocean’s Fragile Fortresses: Uncovering the Impact of Climate Change on Bryozoans

Bryozoans, small colonial invertebrates, play a vital role in forming marine habitats. However, their response to environmental changes has long been overlooked. A recent study published in Communications Biology sheds light on how ocean acidification and warming can affect bryozoan colonies, with crucial implications for marine conservation.

The researchers from the Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM-CSIC) used a natural laboratory on the island of Ischia, Italy, to simulate the conditions projected for the end of the century. They analyzed the morphology, skeleton mineralogy, and microbiome of two bryozoan species exposed to these conditions. The findings revealed that the species exhibit some acclimation capacity, modifying their skeletal mineralogy to become more resistant.

However, a loss in functional microbial diversity was observed, with a decline in genera potentially involved in key processes such as nutrition, defense, or resistance to environmental stress. This suggests that even if colonies look externally healthy, changes in the microbiome could serve as early bioindicators of environmental stress.

The study also considered the effects of rising temperatures, another key factor in climate change. The models used indicate that the combination of these two stressors intensifies the effects observed, significantly reducing the coverage of the encrusting bryozoan and increasing mortality.

These findings have important implications for marine conservation. Habitat-forming species like bryozoans are not only vulnerable but their disappearance could trigger cascading effects on many other species that rely on them for shelter or food. The characterization of the microbiome and preliminary identification of potentially beneficial microorganisms open new research avenues to enhance the resilience of holobionts (host and its associated microbiome) through nature-based approaches.

The complexity of this issue demands integrated analyses, highlighting the importance of interdisciplinary approaches in anticipating future scenarios and protecting marine ecosystems.

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Climate

Unraveling Chaotic Ant Wars to Save Coffee: The Complexities of Ecological Systems in Agriculture

In a Puerto Rican coffee farm, researchers uncovered a web of chaotic interactions between three ant species and a predator fly, revealing how shifting dominance patterns make pest management unpredictable. By combining theories of cyclic dominance and predator-mediated coexistence, they showed how ecological forces oscillate and intertwine, creating patterns too complex for simple forecasting. This deep dive into ant behavior underscores both the potential and the challenges of replacing pesticides with ecological methods, as nature’s own “rules” prove to be far from straightforward.

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As we strive to revolutionize agricultural practices without relying on harmful pesticides, researchers from the University of Michigan have made significant strides in understanding the intricacies of ecological systems on farmland. Led by professors John Vandermeer and Ivette Perfecto, their study published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, sheds light on the complex interactions between three ant species and a recently introduced fly that preys upon one of them.

The researchers’ work on a coffee farm in Puerto Rico reveals that the interaction between these four insect species creates chaotic patterns – not just random fluctuations but intricate dynamics influenced by predator-prey relationships. This chaos is in the classical sense, where natural populations are subjected to fluctuations depending on the interactions of organisms within a system. The study’s findings show that any one of the four insect species could be dominant at any point in time.

For three decades, Vandermeer and Perfecto have been studying ant interactions in the coffee farm’s agricultural setting, seeking to help farmers use ants as biological control agents for pests like coffee leaf rust and scale insects. However, their research highlights that understanding which ants may be dominant over time is a challenging task due to the complex dynamics at play.

“We believe that the current international agricultural system with its use of pesticides and chemicals is not contributing to the welfare of anybody, especially farmers, and is actually contributing quite a bit to global climate change,” Vandermeer said. “We take the position that in order to incorporate the rules of ecology into the development of new forms of agriculture, we need to understand what those rules are and how those rules work.”

The researchers examined two types of ecological behavior: intransitive loop cyclic behavior and predator-mediated coexistence. Intransitive loop cyclic behavior means that if there’s a group of three ant species, Ant A might be dominant over Ant B, Ant B might dominate Ant C, but Ant C could dominate Ant A. When a predator is thrown into the mix, these dynamics become even more complicated.

The study’s findings have significant implications for agriculture. By understanding which ants may be dominant at different points in time, farmers can potentially use these ants as biological control agents to manage pests on their farms with fewer pesticides. However, the researchers acknowledge that the complex dynamics involved make it challenging to base agricultural practices solely on ecological principles.

“The good news is that the chaotic patterns of the insects are really very interesting from an inherent intellectual sense,” Vandermeer said. “The bad news is that it’s not really as simple as it might seem to base agricultural practices on ecological principles because the ecological principles themselves are way more complicated than simply finding a poison that kills the pests.”

Vandermeer and Perfecto’s work highlights the importance of understanding ecological systems in agriculture, acknowledging the complexities involved, and taking a holistic approach to developing new forms of agriculture. As researchers continue to unravel the intricacies of these complex interactions, we may find innovative solutions for more sustainable and pesticide-free agricultural practices – ultimately benefiting farmers, ecosystems, and society as a whole.

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Climate

“Hidden Wonders: Scientists Stunned by Colossal Formations Under the North Sea”

Beneath the North Sea, scientists have uncovered colossal sand formations, dubbed “sinkites,” that have mysteriously sunk into lighter sediments, flipping the usual geological order. Formed millions of years ago by ancient earthquakes or pressure shifts, these giant structures could reshape how we locate oil, gas, and safe carbon storage sites. The discovery not only challenges established geology but also introduces a new partner phenomenon, “floatites,” and sparks debate among experts.

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The discovery of hundreds of colossal sand formations beneath the North Sea has left scientists stunned. Using advanced 3D seismic imaging and data from numerous wells, researchers from The University of Manchester have uncovered vast mounds of sand that appear to defy fundamental geological principles.

These massive formations, dubbed “sinkites,” are estimated to be several kilometers wide and seem to have sunk downward, displacing older, lighter materials beneath them. This phenomenon is known as stratigraphic inversion, where younger rocks typically rest on top of older ones. However, the sinkites have reversed this order on an unprecedented scale.

The researchers believe that these structures formed millions of years ago during periods of earthquakes or sudden shifts in underground pressure, which may have caused the sand to liquefy and sink through natural fractures in the seabed. This process displaced the underlying ooze rafts – composed largely of microscopic marine fossils – sending them floating upwards, creating lighter features known as “floatites.”

The implications of this discovery are far-reaching, particularly for carbon storage. Understanding how fluids and sediments move around in the Earth’s crust can significantly change how we assess underground reservoirs, sealing, and fluid migration. This knowledge could help predict where oil and gas might be trapped and ensure safe storage of carbon dioxide.

Professor Mads Huuse from The University of Manchester, lead author of the study, emphasized that this discovery reveals a geological process previously unseen on such a scale. “We’ve found structures where dense sand has sunk into lighter sediments, effectively flipping the conventional layers we’d expect to see and creating huge mounds beneath the sea.”

As researchers continue to document other examples of this phenomenon and assess its impact on our understanding of subsurface reservoirs and sealing intervals, time will tell just how widely applicable the model is. The study has been published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment.

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